27 Months & 56,000 Miles: 15,000 kWh of Electricity & 50 Gallons of Gas

Over the course of 56,000 miles, I've driven on pure battery 96% of the time.

My 2014 BMW i3 REx is now 27 months old, and the mileage on the odometer just recently surpassed 56,000 miles. I've needed a little over 15,000 kWh of electricity, and exactly 50 gallons of gas to power the vehicle thus far. That means I've driven on pure battery about 96% of the time, and managed an impressive overall gasoline consumption of 1,120 mpg.

Normally I wouldn't highlight the gasoline use in my electric car; it's really not something most electric vehicle owners like to do. However, as many Chevrolet Volt owners can attest to, adding a range extender to a short range (under 100 mile AER) electric vehicle can expand its versatility immensely. While I haven't needed to use the REx often, there were plenty of times, especially in the winter, that I was very happy it was there.

Back in early 2014, a few months before the North American i3 launch, I openly debated whether I'd buy the BEV or the i3 REx. I ultimately decided on getting the range extender, because the EPA range rating wasn't as high as I had previously hoped. If the i3 BEV had an all electric range of 95 miles per charge or higher, I would have opted for the BEV. The EPA rating of 81 miles per charge just wouldn't be enough for my high mileage driving needs, and even though I had lived the past five years with two pure BEVs - the MINI-E and ActiveE, I chose to go back to gas with the i3 REx.

The vast majority of energy used to power my i3 was generated by the 9kW solar array on the roof of my home.

However I have to admit, I thought I'd need to use the range extended more than I actually have.  Of my 56,000+ miles, only 1,925 miles have been with the range extender running. I've bought 50 gallons of gas (I kept records) and averaged 38 miles per gallon while the range extender was running, just slightly less than the EPA rating of 39 mpg.

But just how little gas is that? Well, as I've said I've owned the car for 27 months now, so that averages out to me needing to refill the tiny 1.9 gallon gas tank about once every month - I drink more coffee than that in a month! However, refueling hasn't been nearly that regular. I've gone stretches of four or five months at a time without needing to buy gas. But I've also taken the car on a couple road trips of two or three hundred miles where I needed to refuel three or four times in the same day to complete the journey. In fact, the majority of my REx miles were accumulated on long trips. These trips simply wouldn't have been possible in an i3 BEV, as charging infrastructure is only now becoming available along the routes I've traveled.

My lawn maintenance contractor cutting the front lawn

To put the tiny amount of gas my i3 needed for the past 27 months into perspective, more gas is used in a year to mow my lawn. I have a large lot, it's a little over two acres and most of it is grass. So I asked my lawn maintenance contractor how much gasoline he needs to mow the lawn and he told me about a gallon and a half. Our lawn gets cut between 32 and 36 times a mowing season including Fall clean-ups, and that adds up to about 50 gallons of gas. I've spent about $145 on gasoline, but since I have solar it's difficult to assess exactly how much the electricity cost me. To simplify things I'll just assume I was paying market rate for the approximate 15,000 kWh I've needed. I'm currently paying about 11 cents per kWh, so that's $1,650 for the electric. Therefore, even if I had paid market rate for all my electric, the total cost to power my car 56,000 is $1,795, or $.03 per mile. I'm sure if I could factor in the exact solar discount, I'd be closer to about $.015 per mile which is pretty incredible.

I can now look back on the decision to get the range extender and confidently say it was the right choice. I probably could have managed with the BEV if the climate here in New Jersey was more like Southern California, but along with the harsh winter weather comes reduced range. From December through February, I averaged only about 55 to 60 miles per charge, down from the 70 to 75 I can rely on during the rest of the year. If only the BEV i3 offered the 95 or so miles of electric range I had hoped, then it would have adequately served all of my needs outside of the occasional long distance trip. In which case we would have just used my wife's car for the long trips instead. In fact, if I didn't have the range extender, there would have been many days where I took my wife's car, just in case. Most of these days I never needed to fire up the REx, but having it there allowed me to use the car that day and not worry about rearranging my day to find a place to plug in. I'm sure if I had bought a BEV i3, it wouldn't have 56,000 miles on it already.

The harsh winters of New Jersey meant opportunity charging whenever possible, as well as more use of the REx.

The good news is the 2017 i3 is getting a battery upgrade, and the range for the all electric BEV i3 will increase from 81 miles per charge to 114 miles per charge.  That's an impressive 40% increase in range without increasing the physical size of the battery. The new battery is simply better, and more energy dense. The i3's battery pack is comprised of 96 battery cells, packed 12  cells per module, with 8 individual modules. Each cell now holds 94 Amp-hour (94 Ah) of electricity, up from the 60 Ah cells used in the 2014 through 2016 i3s. The 2017 models will be available in the US within a few weeks, and I've already heard reports from new owners in Europe where they driven as far as 130 to 150 miles on a single charge with the new, improved battery.

The intense competition within the industry is creating improvement in battery technology faster than ever before.

Battery improvements and increased electric range is happening across the industry. The 2011 Nissan LEAF had an EPA range rating of 73 miles per charge. The 2016 LEAF now has a 107 mile rating and by next year it's rumored to jump up to approximately 200 miles. By the end of the year Chevrolet is introducing the all electric Bolt EV which will have a 200+ mile range and replace their current all electric offering, the Spark EV which has an 82 mile range. The 2016 Volt now has 50% more electric range than the 2012 model did. Sometime in late 2017, Tesla is scheduled to launch the 2018 Model 3, their affordable 200-mile electric sedan. However even with longer ranges, increasing the public infrastructure will be key in gaining market share, especially in the more rural areas of the country.

Before long, 200 miles of electric range will be the norm, and BMW will have to up the ante again. They know that, and their battery supplier, Samsung SDI is already far along in development of the next battery which will undoubtedly end up in future i3s. That being the 125 Ah cell which is not only much more energy dense than the current 94 Ah cells, but it's also smaller and lighter. As EV ranges increase, and public charging infrastructure continues to mature, they'll be less and less of a need to bother with the added complexity of a range extender. Sounds good to me, we're just not quite there yet in my opinion. Extended range electric vehicles like the Volt and i3 REx are still a good choice for many who want to transition from gas to electric drive. There's no magic bullet, the more options available, the healthier the plug in electric vehicle market will be. 

Here's Why an i3 Battery Upgrade Currently Doesn't Make Sense

The 2017 i3's 33.4 kWh battery pack is the same physical size as the current 21.6 kWh pack. BMW purposely designed the battery tray this way, so that future battery upgrades would be possible. Allowing the i3's battery to be upgraded was always BMW's plan.

The concept of upgrading an electric vehicle's battery pack is certainly not a new one. In fact, it's something that many EV owners have been vocal about wanting to see offered. So the news that BMW will begin a battery upgrade program for their current i3 owners is good indeed, even if it may be something that isn't really necessary, or practical - yet.

The big news in BMW i's May 2nd press release was, as expected, that BMW would be upgrading the i3's battery cells from 60 Ah to 94 Ah. This means the 2017 i3 will have an EPA range of 114 miles, up from the current 81 miles per charge. These new battery cells are physically the same size as the currently used cells, but can hold 50% more energy and are only slightly heavier. About halfway down the press release, this interesting bit was stated:

Retrofit Program: The Battery Can Be Exchanged Optionally

"The Main focus at BMW i is on sustainability. The consumer is given the assurance that his (her) BMW i3 can be adapted to the latest technical developments in a resource-saving way. This is safe-guarded by the flexible LifeDrive vehicle architecture. The BMW i3 is the first automobile in the premium compact segment in the world to have been designed from scratch as a purely electrically powered vehicle. This design also includes retrofitting new battery technologies.

With the introduction of the new 94Ah battery, BMW gives BMW i customers the opportunity of retrofitting their purely electric BMW i3 (60 Ah) with the new 33 kWh battery as part of the a high-voltage retrofit program. This program is available in select markets. The 22 kWh batteries traded-in by customers are used to build stationary storage battery modules thus starting their second life. This effectively proves how sustainable BMW i technology is across its entire production and service life cycle."

I highlighted "select markets" because it appears that BMW AG is allowing its regional offices to decide if they want to participate in the retrofit program. BMW of North America and BMW UK have both declined to participate at this time. It's believed that is because the cost of the retrofit is high, and since the cars are still relatively new, they believe few customers would elect to upgrade. While there hasn't been any official cost announced for the upgrade yet, I've had people in European countries that will participate contact me, and tell me they were quoted roughly $8,000 US. I've also seen people in i3 Facebook groups discuss a number similar to that, so I believe $8,000 is likely accurate.



This is actually pretty close to what I predicted an upgrade would cost, and why I've previously said it will be very hard for BMW (or any manufacturer for that matter) to offer a reasonably priced battery upgrade as new, better battery cells become available. There's a reason why no OEM has offered a battery retrofit program for a currently-available model like this. The exception being Tesla, which has offered a battery upgrade option for their Roadster owners to consider, however it costs $29,000 and was offered three years after Tesla sold their last Roadster. Tesla does not offer battery retrofit upgrades to vehicles that are currently in production, namely the Model S and Model X. Roadster owners were generally underwhelmed by the upgrade offer, and while it's unclear how many took advantage of the program, it's most certainly a very small number.

The only other upgrade comparison worth noting is that Nissan will allow LEAF owners to replace their pack with the same size 24 kWh battery for $5,499. They won't however, allow a customer with a 24 kWh to upgrade it to the new LEAF 30 kWh battery. This isn't a battery upgrade program since Nissan only gave customers the option to replace their battery with the same one, albeit new pack. Offering a battery pack upgrade isn't an easy thing to do, it's not just a matter of swapping the modules with the new cells. There's plenty of reasons why BMW is the first OEM to offer this on a currently available model. In fact, Transport Evolved covered this topic in depth with this post a couple months ago.

So BMW's retrofit program is indeed something unique, and hopefully something the other OEMs copy. The fact that BMW uses the traded in battery packs to build stationary energy storage modules opens up another question: Who's going to use them? Will BMW sell them to a third party or will BMW refurbish them in house and sell the battery storage unit themselves, ala Tesla's Powerwall?  I'd love to upgrade my battery pack in about three more years when I have 130,000 miles on it, and get my old battery back from BMW, refurbished and ready to be used in my home. BMW hasn't elaborated on exactly what they plan to do with the "stationary storage battery modules" made from the traded-in packs, but this is an option I believe and may very well end up being what they do.

Personally, I like the idea of getting my car's old battery back to use in my home. It would really expand the sustainable life-cycle model that I'd like to employ. It would also be a cool conversation piece, especially when someone asks me sarcastically, "Where do you think those EV batteries go when you replace them?" Intimating that they will end up in a landfill, leaking toxic acid which is a common misconception about high voltage lithium ion batteries used in EVs. I would be able to answer, "After powering my car for 130,000 miles, I replaced the battery pack with a new one that now allows me to drive twice as far as the original pack. I then took the original battery pack and put it in my basement where it will be used for about a decade, storing energy generated from my solar array, so now I'm always driving on sunlight, whenever I plug in to charge."

So why doesn't battery retrofit make sense now?

While this sounds great, the truth is it's still a little premature to get excited about the retrofit program. The i3 is only about two years old, and even the earliest i3s delivered in Europe aren't even close to the point where they need a battery replacement yet. Here in the US we just passed the two year anniversary of the first i3 delivery this week. It just doesn't make sense to replace an EV battery which is only two or even three years old, especially since the vast majority of i3's are leased. I believe this is why BMW of North America and BMW UK both decided against offering the battery upgrade program at this time. It's not that they don't think battery retrofit is a great idea, it's just not time yet.

I took delivery of the first i3 REx in the US on May 25th, 2014, so I've owned my i3 for almost two years now. I have a little under 50,000 miles on the odometer and so far my battery has about 94% of its original capacity. I have one of the highest mileage i3s in the country and still have 94% battery capacity; why would I, or anyone for that matter, want to buy a new battery pack now? As I mentioned above, I definitely plan to upgrade my battery at some point, but I first want to get value out of the pack I already paid for. If I continue driving at the same rate I am now, which is 25,000/yr, then in three more years (2019) I'll have 125,000 miles and will probably be ready to upgrade.

Coincidentally, in 2019 BMW's battery supplier Samsung SDI, is scheduled to release their next generation of automotive lithium ion battery cells, which will be 125 Ah. The cells BMW will be using in the 2017 i3 are 94 Ah, replacing the 60 Ah cells I have in my i3. I'll most likely skip the 94 Ah generation and upgrade directly to the 125 Ah cells once they are available, and that's exactly what I expect most 1st generation i3 owners will do. Upgrading to the future 125 Ah cells will effectively double the car's range, as opposed to the 40% increase in range the 94 Ah cells are delivering.

That's how battery retrofit makes sense. Paying $8,000 to replace a two year old battery just to add 35 miles of range simply doesn't add up, and it's why most markets won't offer the retrofit program just yet. However replacing a battery with 125,000 - 150,000 miles, after it's been used 5 - 7 years or longer, and doubling the range of the car when it was new does make sense, even at a cost of $8,000 if you plan to keep the vehicle long term. Plus, the cost of the cells will most likely continue to drop, and the replacement pack will probably cost less in three years than it does now, even though you'll get better batteries. I really like that BMW AG is starting the program now, even if it's not likely to get many takers. This will allow them to work out any potential problems, gradually improve the program, and in a couple of years time when the early i3 owners start inquiring about it then BMW will be 100% ready. By 2018 I expect most major i3 markets will be participating in the retrofit program, just as the demand for battery pack replacements begin to rise.

It's Official: The 2017 BMW i3 Will Have New Battery, Moonroof Option, New Colors & More

The 2017 i3 comes with 40% more range than the current model. It's also available in a nice new color: Protonic Blue

The worst kept secret of the BMW i3 is officially no longer a "secret". BMW has formally announced that the 2017 i3 will have a new, longer range battery pack. They are indeed using the new Samsung 94 Ah battery cells that I speculated they would five months ago.

Just as I predicted the new battery pack is increasing from 21.6 kWh to 33.4 kWh, which in an increase in capacity of about 50%. However the range of the i3 BEV will only increase by 40% from 81 miles per charge to 114, which is less than i predicted. That's because BMW is now using a larger buffer (the difference between the total battery capacity and the usable capacity) and also because the car now weighs more (roughly 100 lbs more) because the new higher capacity cells weigh slightly more than the ones they replace.  The slight increase in weight will likely only have a very minor effect on performance, if any. The old battery used 60 Ah cells and had a capacity of 21.6 kWh, of which 18.8 kWh was usable. Which means BMW allowed the 87% of the capacity to be accessed. The new pack uses 94 Ah cells, has a total capacity of 33.4 kWh, and 27.2 kWh is accessible. That means only 81% of the total new battery capacity will be usable.

The reduction of usable capacity could simply mean BMW just wants to be more conservative, and with more available capacity they didn't need to squeeze every possible kWh out as they did with the much smaller 21.6 kWh pack. Or, quite possibly the new battery cells don't fare as well as the current cells do when they experience frequent deep discharges, so it's necessary to build in a larger buffer.

The new range rating for the REx model hasn't been announced yet, as it is still undergoing official EPA range testing. I have a theory about why this is so, but I'm going to wait until we get the range rating of the new REx before I elaborate. I do expect the REx to have a smaller percentage of range increase than the BEV i3 did, but I'm going to leave it at that for now. I'll dedicate a new post to this subject once the official EPA range for the new i3 REx is announced.

The new Protonic Blue will likely be a popular choice

While the increased range is the biggest news for the 2017 i3, it's not the only changes. The i3 will be available in a new color, Protonic Blue. At the same time the popular Solar orange is being discontinued. So the color options for 2017 on, will be: Fluid Black, Protonic Blue, Capparis White, Mineral Gray, Platinum Silver and Ionic Sliver.

One interesting nugget which was announced in the BMW AG press release, yet not in the US press release was the BMW i battery retrofit program:

"With the introduction of the new 94 Ah battery, BMW gives i customers the opportunity of retrofitting their purely electric BMW i3 (60 Ah) with the new 33 kWh battery as part of a high-voltage retrofit program. This program is available in selected markets. The 22 kWh batteries traded-in by customers are used to build stationary storage battery modules thus starting their second life. This effectively proves how sustainable BMW i technology is across its entire production and life cycle" 

This is very exciting news, even if it appears that initially only BEV i3 (not REx) owners will be able to upgrade their battery, and initially at least, the US market won't be able to participate. I'd be very surprised if this upgrade program isn't made available to the US market at some time in the future, but I believe the real question is what will the cost be? I would imaging the entire pack, including the thermal management system and packaging probably costs BMW somewhere between $7,500 and $10,000. If they offer a $3,500 discount for the old pack as a trade in, than the customer's cost is somewhere between $4,000 and $6,500 without adding the cost of labor for swapping the packs. So unless BMW subsidizes a big chunk of the cost it's going to be a very costly upgrade, especially considering the owner is replacing a battery that is less than three years old.

The new 94 Ah Samsung battery cells are the same physical size as the current 60 Ah cells, but they weight slightly more. 

I think that's partially why BMW of North America isn't rushing to bring the battery upgrade program here. The i3 just passed its two year anniversary here in the US, so even the earliest buyers still have a relatively new battery. I have one of the highest mileage i3s in the US, and currently have just under 50,000 miles on my car. My battery still has about 18 kWh of usable capacity, after starting with about 19 kWh. So in two years, I've recharged the vehicle about 1,200 times, driven nearly 50,000 miles and my battery has only lost about 5% of its original capacity. I'm definitely not ready to drop $5000 or so on a new battery just to add 30 or 40 miles of range.

I do expect BMW of North America to eventually offer a battery replacement program, but honestly it's just not necessary yet. I could definitely see myself buying the replacement pack in another two years, when I have about 100,000 miles on the car. I'd also be interested in buying back my old pack, once it's been refurbished into the stationary energy storage unit, and using it in my home. My solar array could charge the unit during the day, and when I come home at night I'd use the stored energy to recharge the new pack in my car. I don't know if BMW has plans to make this kind if home energy storage units, but if they did, I'm definitely interested, especially if I could reuse my old battery pack.

Atelier will be called Deca World for the North American market and will be the new base interior trim

The new Dark Walnut wood dash trim

There are also a few interior changes on the new i3. Finally (Let me repeat that!) FINALLY, the US market will be able offered the moonroof option. Much to the chagrin of i3 owners across the country (and particularly the ones in California), until now the moonroof option that was available on the i3 everywhere else in the world, wasn't available in North America. It will now be offered once the 2017 i3 begins shipping sometime in late August. There is also a new interior option being called Deca World (to go along with Mega, T\era & Tera Worlds). Deca World replaces Mega World as the base trim and is an attractive Black fabric with BMW i Blue trim. It has been available in Europe since the i3's launch, where it's called "Atelier". There's also a new dark oak wood option to go with the lighter Eucalyptus wood dash panels. Customers who order other of the two top interior trim levels (Giga or Tera World) will now be able to choose which wood trim they prefer.


             BMW's "Born To Go Further" video ad for the 2017 i3

In all it's pretty much what I expected the 2017 i3 would offer. BMW calls this kind to product refresh an LCI (Life Cycle Impulse). That's a mid generation refresh for the vehicle where they make improvements, but don't create a new vehicle. The battery upgrade is the big deal of this LCI, and will probably the biggest improvement the first generation i3 has during its lifespan, which will likely be until about 2019. I expect a totally new 2nd generation i3 to emerge about that time, along with the next generation of batteries that Samsung is still working on. These new future cells are low profile, are 125Ah with a specific energy of about 250Wh/kg. They pack about 33% more energy than the new 94 Ah cells BMW will introduce in the 2017 i3. So while 2017 brings some nice improvements for the i3, the next big leap forward in battery tech is once again only a couple years away. It's not difficult to see how similarly priced EVs will soon attain cost and utility parity with internal combustion engine vehicles. It's all about the batteries.

Can BMW Fend Off The Charge of the Tesla Model 3? Part 2

My concept 2020 BMW i5. BMW's answer to Tesla's Model 3 (shown in Moloughney Red)
Designed in conjunction with BMWBLOG

In last week's post, we looked at the impact that Tesla's Model S has had on the sales of competing vehicles in the large luxury segment in the US. That set the table for the question of whether or not the Model 3 can have equal or perhaps even greater success in the entry level, premium segment when it hits the streets sometime in the end of 2017 or early 2018. That segment has been owned by BMW's 3-Series for decades, and BMW isn't going to just give it up without a fight.

But what exactly can they do? The Model 3 has captured the imagination of the public and Tesla has received over 400,000 reservations in the first three weeks since the reservation process has opened. That staggering number has undoubtedly caused a few sleepless nights for product planners of various OEMs. In fact, if we look at theory of Diffusion of Innovations, the interest in the Model 3 would absolutely prove that the electric vehicle market has now moved beyond the innovators and early adopters, and we are now well into the early majority phase. That's good news for Tesla, but is BMW also ready to capitalize on the inevitable market shift we are witnessing?

The short answer is yes, they absolutely can. In fact they are probably positioned better than any other OEM to do so because of the tremendous investment that they have made in BMW i. They've poured billions into the i division, and it wasn't just for the i3 and i8. Lessons learned working with CFRP, aluminum and a variety of sustainable materials and manufacturing processes will be carried into future plug-ins. In fact, it's doubtful any auto manufacturer has spent more restructuring the company in preparation for the shift to electrics, than BMW has over the past seven years. However, the remarkable Model 3 reservation list probably indicates that they need to accelerate their EV programs and bring some vehicles to market a little sooner than they might have planned if they want to minimize defection from the brand. The good news for BMW is that Tesla can have a million reservations, and that won't mean they can actually make the cars fast enough to satisfy demand. In fact, every car Tesla has released so far has has been delayed, and even when they initially "launch" the vehicle, it takes them 4 to 6 months before they are making them in serious volume and the first few months of production are usually plagued with quality issues.

The Tesla's Model 3 is predicted to launch in late 2017

So even if Tesla does manage to have a few ceremonial Model 3 deliveries in late 2017 as promised, they probably won't be making them in volume much before the summer of 2018, and I highly doubt they will deliver more than 30,000 to 40,000 Model 3s before the end of 2018. By the time 2019 rolls around, Tesla will likely have any initial quality issues worked out and will be able to begin really producing the vehicle in high volume. So BMW has about three years to produce a vehicle to compete in this segment which will curb mass defection from the loyal 3-Series following, as well as keep the BMW name synonymous with innovation, performance and sustainability.

Does BMW have a vehicle in development that can compete in this class that has already been green-lighted for production? Yes they do, the 2020 i5. We've all read an assortment of i5 predictions from various "BMW insiders" ranging from it being a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle, to an EV with a range extender. If BMW is serious about competing in this space than it shouldn't be either. The i5 needs to be a long range electric vehicle, there's no need to mess around with range extenders or fuel cells. The remainder of this post is purely my thoughts and predictions on what BMW should and could do to remain a leader in the industry. I have nothing concrete to base these opinions on, and everything you read below is purely speculative.

The cornerstone of the BMW i will be the 2020 i5 which will launch in mid 2019 with the following specs:

-Five door hatchback w/seating for five
-Aluminum frame, CFRP body same as i3 & i8
-78.75 kWh battery pack, with 70kWh is usable
-EPA rated range of 245 MPC
-Capable of charging at 150kW.
-345 hp and 375 lb-ft torque. 0-62 mph in 5.0 seconds
-All wheel drive option
-Options include HUD, panoramic roof, various "BMW Driver Assistant" autonomous driving features. 


So why doesn't BMW bring the i5 to market sooner and beat Tesla to the punch? Is it because they don't think the market is ready, or they just don't believe in long range electric cars just yet? The answer to both of those questions is no. It's all about the batteries. Tesla knows this, and refused to wait for the market to bring cutting edge battery cells to them. Instead they are building what will be the largest battery factory in the world, to supply their cars with the best batteries as soon as they are available. BMW, along with the rest of the OEMs, will rely on third party suppliers for their battery cells. It's too early to tell which strategy is best, but once the Gigafactory is operational, it should provide Tesla with the advantage of having the best cells available and at a lower cost, but that has not yet been proven.

Why 2019? That's because Samsung SDI, BMW's battery partner is scheduled to bring to market their next generation lithium ion battery cell sometime in 2019. These new cells have been described by Samsung as the "Low Height Pack" cell generation because they aren't nearly as tall as the batteries currently used in the i3 which will allow for a lower seating position. However, the real progress is in the specific energy of the cells and the cost. The current i3 uses 60Ah cells that are believed to have a specific energy of 130 Wh/kg. The 2017 i3 is rumored to be using the latest Samsung SDI cells that are the same physical size as the 60Ah cells, but are 94Ah with a specific energy of about 190 Wh/kg. These new cells are going to increase the i3's range from 81 miles per charge to about 120 MPC. However that still isn't good enough for the long range Model 3 competitor that the i5 needs to be. The 2020 i5 will use Samsung's Low Height Pack cells that are estimated to be about 125Ah with a specific energy of about 250Wh/kg, nearly double the energy density of what the current i3 batteries have and cost less than the current 60Ah cells do. These cells will allow BMW to stuff a 78.75kWh battery pack in the i5 and still keep the weight under 4,000lbs.

A Samsung SDI rep holding their new "Low Height Pack" cells which won't be available until 2019. Notice the energy rating is not listed on the cell as it is on the other batteries on display. Also note the low height as compared to the 94Ah cell on the left. That 94Ah cell is rumored to be in the 2017 BMW i3, and is the same physical size as the 60Ah cell used in current i3s. 

The i5's battery pack I'm designing would consist of 14 modules, each containing 12 battery cells for a total of 168 cells. If BMW allows 90% of the pack to be available, that means 70kWh of usable energy and an EPA range of about 245 miles per charge. It will also accept up to 150kW of DC power and utilize the emerging network of 150kW DC fast chargers that, by then, will begin being funded by members of the CharIn EV association. The network will be minuscule compared to Tesla's Supercharger network, and Tesla still has a huge advantage there, but at least customers will see a path to what someday could rival the Supercharger network, which currently doesn't exist. I'm not even ruling out a partnership with Tesla, where the other OEMs pay Tesla to install 150kW CCS stations at every Supercharger location. After all, at Audi's 2014 LA Auto Show press conference, the automaker promised they would have a network of 150kW DC Fast charge stations installed and operational before they launch the 2019 e-tron Quattro. How else could they accomplish that?

The i3's battery tray

Granted, even if BMW hits the mark with the i5, the Model 3 is going to be a widely popular vehicle as long as Tesla can manage to deliver what they have promised. However, a strong competitor from BMW like what the i5 has the potential to be, can limit the number of sales the Model 3 takes from BMW in this segment. The i5 will cost more than the Model 3, starting at $49,990. However the standard i5 will be better optioned than the standard Model 3, and I believe a loaded Model 3 will end up costing around $60K anyway. Therefore the average purchase price of the two cars may only be $6,000 to $8,000 apart.

That said, the i5 isn't the only plug they'll have in 2020. By then BMW's entire array of models will offer PHEV options. They already sell the X5 40e plus the 330e, and by the end of the year will have the 740e in showrooms. Sometime in 2017 the 540e will be added to the iPerformance PHEV line. These are all very competent PHEVs, and the reviews have been very positive with regards to the driving experience they offer. The only problem I have with these cars is the AER. None of these vehicles boast an EPA range of even fifteen miles per charge, and I just don't find that acceptable in 2016. If BMW wants customers to see the value in paying more for the plug in version of any car in their line, it has to deliver an electric range that can save them a reasonable amount in fuel to offset the couple thousand dollars extra the vehicle costs, and 13 miles of electric range just doesn't do it.

BMW now calls the PHEV line that comes from their conventionally powered vehicles "iPerformance"

BMW needs to upgrade the batteries in their PHEVs to the higher density cells coming to market now, and then again in 2019. If BMW were to use the higher energy cells available later this year, the AER of their iPerformance PHEVs would jump up to about 20 miles per charge without increasing the battery's physical size or weight. Then, in 2019 when the 125Ah cells are available, they can bring the 2nd generation PHEVs to market with a boost to 30 - 40 miles of electric range. This won't satisfy the hardcore EV aficionado, but there will be plenty of people looking to buy their first plug in. These people aren't ready for a 100% electric car, and a PHEV with a respectable AER will bring them (or keep them loyal) to the brand.

The final piece of the puzzle is the 2nd generation i3. Using Samsung's Low Height pack 125Ah cells means BMW can offer a 48kWh i3 which would most likely have about a 180 mile electric range. I expect BMW to stick with the range extender option when the 2nd generation i3 is released so the choices will be the 180 mile BEV and a REx that has about 325 miles of combined range, and both versions will charge at 150kW like the i5. I also expect it to have the functionality to turn the REx on manually when the operator wishes, because BMW will have worked out the issues with CARB and the BEVx designation which is why the current i3's range extender is restricted from using the built in Hold SOC Mode that European i3 owners get to use. Expect the gen 2 i3 to be slightly larger than the current model, and I'm betting BMW will replace the rear coach doors with conventionally opening ones. They will also figure out how to add a third seat in the back. BMW will improve the drivetrain efficiency as well as add about 20 hp and 25 left of torque. 0 to 60 times for the BEV will be in the mid 6 second range.

BMW will bring the MINI Rocketman BEV to market in 2018

One last prediction. In 2018 BMW will introduce the MINI Rocketman and it will be available in pure BEV and use many of the i3's components. It will have about a 100 mile range and at launch be available only as a hardtop. However, the following model year it will also be offered in convertible trim, finally giving the EV faithful an attractive and sporty electric ragtop offering.

While BMW's i5 will be the Model 3's direct competitor, I believe it's going to take an entire portfolio of plug-ins for BMW to remain competitive in the ever expanding plug-in market. While BMW absolutely needs a flagship long distance pure EV, there is no one size fits all in the automobile industry, and the plug-in market is no exception. This is one area where BMW has a clear advantage over Tesla. By 2020, BMW will have no less than seven models with plugs in their showrooms, and most likely that number may actually be closer to ten models. If the incredible amount of reservations the Model 3 has amassed has proven anything, it's that the public is absolutely ready for compelling electric vehicle options. Tesla has captured the imagination of the world. They've proven that it can indeed be done and people want to support them for doing so. Your move BMW. 

Battery Options for the 2017 BMW i3?

A Samsung employee shows of one of the new 94Ah battery cells which I predict the 2017 i3 will boast

Ever since last October when BMW CEO Harold Krueger stated that the 2017 i3 would have an increased electric range, there's been speculation on how they would accomplish it. While BMW hasn't made any official announcements yet, it's widely believed that BMW will be using the new Samsung 94Ah battery cells for the 2017 i3, which I first speculated here, back in November. 

The current i3 uses 96 Samsung 60Ah battery cells which are 3.75v ea. This adds up to a total of 21.6kWh (96 x 60 x 3.75= 21.6). The new 94Ah cells are the same physical size and voltage so an upgrade to these cells would mean BMW could use the same modules and battery tray, greatly reducing the cost as compared to engineering all new packaging for the new cells. Therefore, the new pack should increase from 21.6kWh to 33.8kWh (96 x 94 x 3.75 = 33.8). If the weight of the cells is the same, that should increase the BEV i3's range from the existing 81 miles per charge to approximately 125 miles per charge and the i3 REx's range from 72 miles per charge to about 112 MPC.

The battery pack of my i3 REx. It was removed to replace a faulty battery heating element. 

So we know for sure that the 2017 i3 which begins production this summer will have increased range from improved battery cells, and we believe we've figured out which cells BMW will be using. The next logical question then is:  Will that be the only battery available for the 2017 i3, or will BMW also continue to offer the current 60Ah cells as a lower cost battery pack option? We say the latter.

As a comparison Tesla has always offered different battery pack options for the Model S. That, along with direct sales and the Supercharger network been part of the fabric which has made the Model S so appealing to so many people. But there is another example of an OEM offering battery size options which is an even better comparison, and that's Nissan. Ever since the Nissan LEAF launched in late 2010, it had been fitted with a 24 kWh battery pack. Just past Fall Nissan added a 30kWh battery pack as an option. The entry level "S" model still has the 24kWh battery pack, but if you want the higher level SV or SL trims, you also get the new 30kWh battery pack. 

BMW could do something like what Nissan did and continue to offer the 21.6kWh battery pack, but only on a base i3, to offer a lower cost option. Or they could do like Tesla does and simply allow the customer to choose the battery size they want like any other option. This will however drive dealers nuts because they'll now have to stock four different i3's. Some dealers are already having difficulty deciding how many of each of the current two versions to stock, so four different versions of the i3 definitely won't make their life any easier.  I am however, going to predict this is indeed what BMW does, and if I am correct, here's the 2017 i3 options that will be available as early as this September:

BEV with 21.6kWh battery and 81mi electric range

REx with 21.6kWh battery, 72 mi electric range & 74 mi additional gas range (39mpg x 1.9gal)

BEV with 33.8kWh battery and ~125 mi electric range
REx with 33.8kWh battery, ~112 mi electric range & 93 mi additional gas range (39mpg x 2.4gal)

Note the gasoline range on the 33.8kWh i3 REx increased from 74 miles to 93 miles. That's because in the US, BMW reduced the amount of gasoline available on the car to 1.9 gallons, even though the  fuel tank is actually 2.4 gallons. European customers have had access to the full 2.4 gallons all along, and will continue to do so. The reduced gas availability in the US was so the car would be classified as a CARB (California Air Resource Board) BEVx vehicle, giving BMW the maximum amount of the valuable ZEV credits, and qualifying the i3 for additional state rebates and tax exemptions. However, with the larger battery and longer all electric range, the i3 REx can now utilize the entire 2.4 gallons and still have BEVx designation, so I see no reason why BMW wouldn't remove the gas tank restriction and give access to the full 2.4 gallons. That would increase the overall combined range of the i3 REx from its current 142 mi to 205 mi. 

With the battery tray cover removed, you can see the eight distinct modules that make up the i3's battery pack.
Each module contains twelve 60Ah Samsung battery cells. 

Of course we're still just speculating here, and as we draw closer to the beginning of production for the 2017 model year i3 BMW has been as tight lipped as always on new or improved models. Perhaps the announcement will happen next week at NYIAS, or BMW may wait until closer to the 2017 launch as to not really kill sales of the remaining 2016 i3 inventory. In any event, the improved range will be a welcomed improvement for the i3, if not a necessary one. The new 30kWh battery pack of the Nissan LEAF is only a temporary improvement, as it's been strongly rumored that the 2018 LEAF may have a 60kWh battery. That, coincidently matches the 2017 Chevy Bolt's 60kWH battery pack, and that EV will boast a 200 mile all electric range. Then, in 2018 the Tesla Model 3 will launch, and offer a 200 mile range for about $35,000. So I'm guessing the next i3 range boost will have to happen in 2018 as a 2019 model, perhaps when the 2nd generation i3 is released. 

I'm sure BMW realizes they need to continuously improve the battery in their EV's if they want to be competitive in this space, and this LCI refresh for the i3 proves that BMW isn't going to sit idle and let the competition eat their electrons for lunch. 

The 2017 BMW i3: 94 Ah Cells and a 125 Mile EPA Range Rating?

Might these new 94 Ah cells from Samsung SDI make their way into the 2017 BMW i3?

About a month ago BMW CEO Harold Krueger surprised the EV world by casually mentioning in an interview with Die Zeit that in 2016 the i3 would have increased range. That of course sparked a lot of online speculation as to how would BMW accomplish this. Did they figure out a way to squeeze in more of the same 60 Ah Samsung battery cells that the i3 currently uses? Might they have sourced higher energy density battery cells from another supplier? Could Samsung have made the new 94 Ah cells available to BMW now? According to Samsung's Battery Technology Roadmap it didn't look like they would have those cells available for at least another year.

From the Samsung SDI website. The 94 Ah cells aren't even listed as available (click to enlarge)

According to some well connected insiders, it is beginning to look like BMW will indeed use Samsung's now 94 Ah battery cells in the 2017 i3 which will begin production in July of 2016. Furthermore, one insider even believes BMW will offer a battery upgrade option for current i3 owners that want the new, higher energy dense battery cells. Personally I just don't see how BMW can accomplish this without charging more money for the upgrade than most i3 owners would be willing to pay. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to get the battery upgrade myself. However, even if BMW discounted the new battery pack by giving owners a credit on the battery pack they returned, what would the upgrade price have to be for current i3 owners to bite?

Samsung SDI Battery Technology Roadmap

Personally, I think I would go for it if BMW could do the upgrade for under $5,000. That would also be contingent on the rumors being correct, and the new battery pack would be the same physical size - 96 battery cells packaged in 8 modules, containing 12 cells each. Using the new 94 Ah cells, BMW would increase the i3's total battery pack size from 21.6 kWh to 33.4 kWh without increasing weight significantly, if at all. Assuming BMW continued allowing approximately 90% of the total pack as usable energy, that would mean that the new i3 will have approximately 30kWh accessible to use. 30kWh usable would increase the i3 BEV's range to approximately 125 miles per charge and the i3 REx to about 115 mpc. With 115 EPA rated miles of range, my i3 REx would almost never fire up the range extender, which is fine by me. I'd still need it for the 240-mile trips to Vermont I take every couple months, but not for much more than that. If the i3 had 125 miles of range when it initially launched, I definitely wouldn't have ordered mine with the REx.

The battery tray removed from my i3 for service. This contains 8 modules, each holding twelve 60 Ah Samsung SDI battery cells. The new 94 Ah cells are the same size and can simply replace the current cells, in the same modules and fit nicely into the existing battery tray.

However, I'm still not convinced BMW will offer an option for current i3 owners to upgrade, and I'm even less convinced that they could offer it at a price point which would make it a reasonable purchase for someone who has only owned their car for a couple years or less. If they had 100,000 miles on the car, and the battery had already degraded to 75% or 80% or so of what it was when it was new, then the owner might be able to justify the cost of a new replacement pack. Of course, this is all speculation at this point. Nonetheless, we'll be talking a lot about these questions until BMW finally releases the details. Which, by the way, I don't expect them to do for at least 4 or 5 months. Rumors of an upgrade to an EV's battery pack can really hurt sales of the current vehicle. The only thing that will hurts sales even more is when the manufacturer admits it, gives the specifications and the expected launch date for the new model. If anyone out there is i3 bargain hunting, and can live with the i3's current range, you can expect some killer deals this spring as BMW clears out the remaining 2016 inventory to make room for the 2017s with the new battery.

One i3 battery module. As you can see there are twelve cells in each module, and there are eight modules in the pack.

A battery upgrade would seemingly solve another issue that has bothered some i3 REx owners, that being the size of the gas tank - or really how much of it they have access to. All i3's come with a 2.4 gallon gas tank. However, for the US market, BMW had to restrict the amount of gas available to use to 1.9 gallons. The reason was to satisfy the California Air Resource Board's criteria for a BEVx vehicle. One of the criteria for an extended range electric vehicle to be classified as a BEVx is that the range of the car while being driven on battery needs to exceed the range it can drive on gasoline. If BMW allowed the full 2.4 gallons to be available for use, the gas range would be slightly greater than the electric range, and the i3 REx wouldn't qualify as a BEVx. BMW would lose some of the highly valuable ZEV credits they get for every i3 REx sold in "CARB states".

If the i3's electric range is increased more than 20 additional miles, then the full 2.4 gallon tank could be accessed without a BEVx violation. Therefore, I fully expect the 2017 i3 REx to have use of the entire 2.4 gallon gas tank as it does with the European i3s. Actually, if the new batteries do extend the i3 REx's battery range to the possible 115 MPC, then BMW could increase the gas tank to a little over 3 gallons if they wanted to. The i3 REx would then offer over 200 miles of driving range without needing to plug in or fill up.

Might the 2017 i3 REx have a larger gas tank?

Whether or not BMW will indeed use the new 94 Ah cells from Samsung is yet to be known. According to CEO Krueger, we do know BMW will be upgrading the i3's battery pack, and the most obvious and easiest way to do so would be with higher density battery cells. Samsung's new 94 Ah cells are the same physical size as the 60 Ah cells used in the current i3, so upgrading to the new cells couldn't be any easier - as along as they are indeed ready and available. As for the battery upgrade for existing i3 owners, it's a tempting proposition, and one that I hope BMW fully explores to see if there is a way that they can do it at a reasonable cost (I say that's under $5,000). However I'm just not convinced that they can offer an upgrade without losing a lot of money on every pack they sell. Time will tell, and I'm sure there will be a lot of discussions about his before we actually get all the facts from BMW.

bmw ceo harald krueger

BMW CEO Krueger revealed plans to increase the i3's range in 2016

It's no secret that if BMW wants the i3 to continue to remain relevant they will eventually have to increase its all electric range. In fact, in about a year there will be no less than two electric vehicles available in North America that have double the i3's all electric range and also cost less. Nissan will be launching the second generation LEAF, and Chevrolet will bring the Bolt EV to market by the end of 2016 and they are both rumored to have approximately 200 miles of electric range.

I think it's fair to say most people expected BMW to up the i3's range to stay competitive, but when they would do so was not known. Until now. BMW CEO Harold Krueger in an interview with Die Zeit recently said this about the topic:

“Battery cell technology continues to evolve. The range of the i3 will be increased in 2016. A further technological improvement is to be expected in three or four years: Then you’ll be able to go twice as far on a single charge without any further increase in the weight of the battery."

This is the first time anyone from BMW has offered a clear statement about increasing the range of the current i3. Personally, I didn't expect this yet, but welcome the news. I had always maintained that the i3's range would be linked to the progress made by BMW's battery partner, Samsung SDI. So the news that the MY2017 i3 will have increased range is interesting as well as exciting. It's interesting because Samsung has maintained that they wouldn't be bringing the next generation of large format, automotive grade batteries with increased energy density to market before 2018 - 2019. See timeline produced by Samsung SDI below:

Samsung SDI Battery Technology Roadmap

So the question is: How is BMW increasing the i3 range? Here are some possible explanations:

1) They are sourcing higher energy density batteries from other suppliers. This could very likely be the answer. The i3's 130 kW/Kg battery cells are not nearly as energy dense as the cells Tesla uses for instance. BMW could have a partner to supply them with cells which have considerably higher energy density and accomplished the increased range using the same battery tray as the current i3.

2) Samsung SDI provided BMW with a battery which is incrementally better than the existing cells they provide BWM with, but not quite as energy dense as the cells they plan to have in three or four years, according to their technology roadmap. Again, this would allow BMW to use the current battery tray and not need any major structural re-engineering. 

3) BMW redesigned the battery tray to accommodate more battery modules, or used the area where the range extender goes to add a second, smaller battery pack. Either of these options would have required a lot of engineering, testing and validation. I just don't see BMW doing either of these for a mid-cycle refresh. Certainly when the next generation i3 comes out in 2018 or 2019 there will likely be new redesign of the battery tray area, but not for a refresh, it's just too expensive to do that only two years after the initial launch.

Another benefit of the increased electric range will be increased gas range for the REx i3s in the US. Unlike in Europe, the US i3 must have a shorter range when driving on gasoline than it does on battery alone. This is a complicated issue which is tied to the amount of ZEV credits BMW gets for every i3 they sell, but in short by increasing the i3's all electric range, they can then allow the gas range to increase and still qualify for the maximum ZEV credits they get. The current i3 REx is EPA rated at 72 miles per charge and the range extender's gas tank is software limited to 1.9 US gallons which provides another 70 miles of range. If BMW were to increase the i3's REx's electric range from 72mpc to 92mpc. They could then allow US customers full use of the 2.4 gallon gas tank, and the combined range would go from about 142 miles to roughly 182 miles.

BMW employee working on an i3 battery pack assembly

Krueger was also asked if current i3 owners would have the ability to upgrade their cars with the new batteries and his answer was: "We are currently looking into that." Personally I believe that will be possible, but not economically viable, for now at least. I know current i3 owners will be asking about an upgrade but it just doesn't make sense to replace a battery pack that is two years old for just a little more range. I think it's more likely that in four or five more years when some of the original wave of i3 owners have 120,000 to 150,000 miles on their car they will be looking at the next generation of battery cells which will be available and these "new" battery cells will already be obsolete. I would be surprised if BMW didn't engineer those new cells to fit in the same modules the current i3 uses, so a complete replacement with the upgraded battery cells would then be possible.

What effect this will have on i3 sales from now until this new longer range i3 is available is unknown, but there is at least some comparable data to use. Both the Chevy Volt and the Nissan LEAF launched in late 2010 and are just now releasing upgraded range models. The Volt is a complete redesign and the LEAF is doing more of what BMW is now by keeping basically the same vehicle and offering it with an incremental longer range. The 2nd generation LEAF which will be completely redesigned and offer much more range won't be available for about another year. In both cases these cars experienced greatly reduced monthly sales in their final months as customers waited for the new model with longer range. Like Nissan and Chevrolet, BMW will likely have to offer some favorable financial incentives to clear the remaining 2016 stock once the new battery i3 is nearing availability meaning this should be a good time to pick up an i3 for a great deal.

In any event, this is all great news. It further proves BMW's commitment to electric cars and their willingness to upgrade the i3 as battery technology improves.